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As we approach the end of 2024, private property prices remain stubbornly high, pushing homebuyers to explore less conventional areas in search of more affordable living options. One such area gaining attention is the Flora Drive enclave, a cluster of condominiums more notable for its not-so-near distance from the MRT, quite a feat in this day and age given the rapid expansion of Singapore’s rail network in the last few years. The recent launch of the freehold has reignited interest in this area too, thanks to its seemingly attractive per-square-foot rates. But are these properties truly good value? And will the influx of developments here mean too much competition later? Let’s take a closer look. The key issue with Flora Drive is accessibility. There isn’t any MRT station close to the condos here: many projects are somewhere between Tampines East MRT (over 1.3 km for many of the projects), and Pasir Ris East MRT (also about the same distance, but this station is only up in 2029).  Amenities in the area are also quite sparse, although Flora Drive is famously close to the airport; the bus stop near block 149A, for instance, has a direct bus to Terminal 3 – but there are no big malls or major entertainment outlets. And while we’re on this issue: the proximity of Changi Airport is also something of a double-edged sword. There’s always the fear that its proximity will affect redevelopment and en-bloc prospects, due to height restrictions.  This explains the much lower prices of private condos in the vicinity. The Inflora, for instance, has recently seen two-bedders (743 sq.ft.) transact at just $910,000, while Avila Gardens recently saw 1,324 sq. ft. units transact at $1.48 million (freehold!)  Flora Drive condos also offer some rental prospects, to those who want to cater to the aviation industry. Inflora has one-bedders that are barely above $600,000, while Palm Isle’s one-bedders transact at about $710,000.  If you look at the overall prices here, it’s almost as if Flora Drive somehow managed to stay in the 2010s, while the rest of the property market moved on. But does this mean we’re looking at a lot of room for appreciation, or does it mean an area where prices are stagnant? Here are some questions we sought to answer: Finally, we’ll look at summarising what we can learn from examining the data. These are the 15 condo projects we’ll examine. There is a rather wide range of condos here, from different eras. The oldest is Avila Gardens, built in 1995, whilst the newest is the mixed-use , which was completed in 2023. The total unit count is 5,762 units, of which the vast majority (about 80 per cent) are two and three-bedder units. If we go one rung up in size and look at three and four-bedders, they make up about half the units. This is good for HDB upgraders, who are generally after family units and will want more space. First, let’s separate the freehold and leasehold projects. We’ll also exclude projects completed on or after 2017, to avoid distortions in price psf. Here’s the yearly performance of  the qualifying leasehold, resale units: The performance of Flora Drive’s leasehold condos, from 2016 to 2023, was just okay compared to the wider property market. All of the leasehold projects had annualised returns slightly under the market average of 3.99 per cent, with Hedges Park beating the wider market at 4.36 per cent.  Flora Drive’s freehold condos had a more impressive performance. They all consistently beat the wider property market, with even the weakest performer (Carissa Park) showing much higher annualised returns than the market norms (5.36 per cent versus the market average of 3.17 per cent). Avila Gardens saw the highest return at 8.12 per cent, likely on the back of being the oldest and having more time to appreciate.  So if we’re going by the general picture here, buyers should be looking at freehold over leasehold options in Flora Drive. Freehold condos are more common than leasehold in this area anyway, which also makes for a wider range of options.  This answers our three main questions: for leasehold condos, Flora Drive condos have mostly performed in line with the wider property market (maybe a bit lower, by less than a percentage point). For freehold condos, Flora Drive has outperformed the wider market.  Next, let’s look at gains and losses in absolute terms: (Note: For this, we’ll look at transactions from 2013 onward, as prior to this many cooling measures were weaker or absent) Going by the above, there’s still no change from our previous conclusion. Freehold still wins: with the exception of Edelweiss Park, all the freehold condos here saw higher absolute returns than leasehold counterparts. As to why leasehold seems to struggle in Flora Drive, it may just be due to the large number of freehold neighbours with a bigger supply of units. It may also be due to many years of concerted marketing efforts: Parc Komo, for instance, was widely pushed as “the most affordable freehold condo in Singapore” during its launch – and this was a sales pitch that had previously also been applied to many Flora Drive condos.  Perhaps the allure of owning a freehold condo, at such a low price point, is a factor that deflects attention from leasehold counterparts. Nevertheless, it’s hard to conclude at this point, and we will need to do a deeper analysis to understand this. We’ve seen above that, if you’re a believer in this area, freehold is the way to go. In the broader sense however, we would consider that there’s a large supply of units here; and we’re not so sure if the opening of Pasir Ris East MRT will have much of a transformative effect (it’s still rather far).  And whilst land use is always intensifying, we haven’t heard any specifics by URA or related bodies, over any major changes to this area as of yet. We’re addressing this here as, if you’re looking at Flora Drive, this is probably the main development on your radar right now. To get a sense of how well Kassia may fare, let’s look at Parc Komo, which is the most recent freehold launch in this same area. We’ll look at how Parc Komo performed next to , which launched just a year before it: Note that both projects underperformed the wider market. Nonetheless, let’s look at the premium between the leasehold (Jovell) and freehold (Parc Komo) units, for 700+ sq. ft. units: There’s a price difference of around 23.6 per cent, which we consider a high premium given the condos are only roughly a year apart. This may be why Jovell did better than Parc Komo – with new launches, we need to take into account not just the price psf, but the overall quantum.  Even if a project is new, having a lot of other freehold options in the area can weaken its demand; especially if those freehold resale condos are bigger, have more facilities, and so forth.  Now Kassia is a new launch in 2024, so the current price point of close to $2,000+ psf is expected (this is roughly the average for new launches today, even in fringe regions). If we go along this train of thought, then it’s hard to see how Kassia would outperform the market if the 2 new launches in the area, which has a lot of supply already, failed to outperform.  Still though, Flora Drive has other qualities going for it. It’s close to the airport, it’s quiet, and it’s probably one of the most affordable places to buy a larger condo, in the pricey 2024 market. Gains are also clearly possible, but we’d be prepared for a possibly longer holding period. For more on the private property market in Singapore, follow us on . If you’d like to get in touch for a more in-depth consultation, you can do so .