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If a China and America war went nuclear, who would win?

It is bad enough to contemplate a war in Asia. It is grimmer still to think through a nuclear one. But somebody has to. And so Andrew Metrick, Philip Sheers and Stacie Pettyjohn, all of the Centre for a New American Security (CNAS), a think-tank in Washington, recently gathered a group of experts to play a tabletop exercise – a type of wargame – to explore how a Sino-American nuclear war could break out. The results were not encouraging.

It is bad enough to contemplate a war in Asia. It is grimmer still to think through a nuclear one. But somebody has to. And so Andrew Metrick, Philip Sheers and Stacie Pettyjohn, all of the Centre for a New American Security (CNAS), a think-tank in Washington, recently gathered a group of experts to play a tabletop exercise – a type of wargame – to explore how a Sino-American nuclear war could break out. The results were not encouraging. In the exercise scenario, it is 2032 and a war over Taiwan has been raging for 45 days. China uses “theatre” nuclear weapons – with a shorter range and smaller yield than the city-busting “strategic” missiles – to shorten the war by coercing America into submission.