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Forum: Effects of demographic changes on inflation need to be managed

As countries around the world grapple with higher costs of living, the undercurrents of demographic change might be beginning to show their effects.

As countries around the world grapple with higher costs of living, the undercurrents of demographic change might be beginning to show their effects. In a 2017 working paper by economists Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan titled one of the key arguments by the authors was that ageing will raise inflation. This is a result of a reduced working cohort and also growing proportions of young and old who are “net consumers”. While supply chains begin to normalise to pre-pandemic norms, it remains to be seen how inflationary pressures from labour scarcity can find their equilibrium. Technological advances in the Fourth Industrial Revolution have resulted in countries playing catch-up to reskill their workforce. At the same time, as millennials dominate the workforce, the effects of a different work ethos from earlier generations will also change the way labour will behave and how companies decide to compensate their workers. Singapore will not be spared in this reversal. As we have enjoyed the demographic dividends in the past decades, a demographic cost confronts us if we do not manage the balance between the producers and consumers. It is thus important to ensure an effective working cohort to meet the demands of consumers who are the young and the retired. There are no easy answers, given that both the young and old demand labour-intensive services such as caregiving, education and medical services. This in turn takes up the overall dwindling supply of labour, which leads to higher wages. Hence, we need to prioritise harnessing technological enablers to raise productivity in these sectors. One fringe benefit of the pandemic was the accelerated use of technologies such as telemedicine and home-based learning. To this end, we must continue to innovate not incrementally but dramatically. Otherwise, we can expect that inflation will remain entrenched.