News

Singaporeans are so inundated with stories of property tycoons, million-dollar profits, and “safe haven” theories, we forget that property can sometimes become a liability. While it’s far from the norm, some property owners do get burned when it comes to resale gains; and the losses can be more substantial than expected. Consider the following properties which, despite 2024 still being a fairly high point in the market, managed to rack up losses: Some observations from the above: The main losses all come from the Sentosa/River Valley/Newton area, prestigious parts of the core region.  With regard to Sentosa, we’re not too surprised to see it on the list: we’ve covered this unique region in an . Suffice it to say that Sentosa’s luxury condos are meant to be enjoyed as indulgences, and are less angled toward investment. Sentosa Cove is also really more famous for its bungalows, so its condo segment typically takes a backseat to its landed developments.  Nonetheless, for both Sentosa and the other core region properties, we’re likely seeing the new ABSD measures start to bite. Foreigners now pay 60 per cent ABSD on all residential properties – and the prime regions will bear the brunt of this, as affluent foreigners make up a larger buyer demographic here.  There is another consideration for prime region properties as well: a bigger share of owners here are landlords, looking to rent to the lucrative expatriate market. Due to wider economic issues right now (e.g., the conflict in Europe and the Middle East, and uncertainty over coming US elections), companies may cut back and turn conservative – this could mean fewer expats, or reduced housing allowances. We may be seeing some landlords cutting their losses and reinvesting elsewhere, before the situation gets worse.  Overall, the outlook on the CCR isn’t great right now, and the losses you see here are congruent with that.  This is interrelated with point 1, in that once a project goes beyond a quantum of $1.8 million, the average buyer is priced out. And the most common buyer of family-sized units, as of 2024, is the HDB upgrader.  In the OCR, resale condos have a lot of price support, because of rising interest rates and new launch prices. With the typical new launch now at $2,100+ psf, and interest rates creeping toward four per cent, upgraders find resale condos much more palatable (not to overlook the fact that they can move in right away).  Prime region condos, even if they’re resale, lack this benefit. At a quantum of $3 million or above, the prospective pool of buyers will always be small.  The top losses seem to defy the conventional wisdom that, so long as you have holding power, you can ride out the downturns. With the sole exception of one unit at Marina Bay Suites, all of the losing transactions had holding periods of over 10 years, with the top three losses having holding periods of over 16 years.  We can also surmise that, for anyone with the budget to purchase such units, being under-capitalised is an unlikely issue. It’s possible that these sellers, despite having all the holding power they need, are simply done with locking up so much capital in a single asset.  This is worth considering, when you’re given the usual spiel about holding power: even if you have it, you may reach a point where holding on longer is not going to reward you.  The top losses have a fairly even mix of freehold and leasehold condos. This suggests that paying the freehold premium didn’t help to mitigate the losses, whilst the lower initial cost of the leasehold condos also didn’t do much to help.  Going back to what we’ve said in an , this shows that lease status may not have as much of an impact as we think. In the end, factors like market conditions, the total quantum, the location, etc. are the main issues determining resale gains; and freehold status may only pay off in much longer-term situations, such as if the sellers were awaiting a collective sale, or get to the point where the condo is 40+ years old. (Developers don’t have to top up the lease for freehold properties, which can improve the odds of an en-bloc sale; and financing from banks tends to decrease once there are 60 or fewer years left on a property).  Overall, we can surmise that the Core Central Region (CCR) is likely to struggle a bit in terms of investment performance, at least until the market adapts to the new stamp duties. None of this is a criticism of project quality by the way; the developments above remain some of the more prominent ones. If you do buy them today, purchase them for that reason over financial ones.  Unsure if your property purchase might end up on this list some day? with us for an in-depth consultation!